Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.092629 2.201894 2.318982 2.454757 2.609158 2.780907 2.988793
2025-06-29 1.966885 2.106805 2.263005 2.452910 2.681397 2.952970 3.309536
2025-07-06 1.851381 2.004868 2.180651 2.401038 2.676598 3.020159 3.500627
2025-07-13 1.804733 1.975406 2.175909 2.435362 2.773366 3.218022 3.888876
2025-07-20 1.781900 1.970347 2.197222 2.500168 2.911974 3.486446 4.434609
2025-07-27 1.735795 1.932824 2.174109 2.503610 2.965837 3.640774 4.842360
2025-08-03 1.695806 1.899859 2.153534 2.507031 3.017614 3.796850 5.297968
2025-08-10 1.633308 1.835276 2.088211 2.444233 2.966131 3.781271 5.421771
2025-08-17 1.594644 1.799117 2.057791 2.427016 2.979728 3.872519 5.793828
2025-08-24 1.560753 1.767467 2.031438 2.413192 2.996227 3.969774 6.218060
2025-08-31 1.531266 1.740209 2.009411 2.403676 3.017775 4.078219 6.722078
2025-09-07 1.514478 1.728669 2.007710 2.422952 3.086338 4.284548 7.625931
2025-09-14 1.464718 1.673268 1.945537 2.351954 3.004479 4.193783 7.591089
2025-09-21 1.441855 1.652710 1.930372 2.350090 3.037977 4.340568 8.486708
2025-09-28 1.405200 1.612635 1.886639 2.302717 2.989798 4.309659 8.698447
2025-10-05 1.396604 1.609737 1.894430 2.333995 3.080472 4.595588 10.671186
2025-10-12 1.397071 1.618881 1.919293 2.392965 3.227181 5.054139 15.272490
2025-10-19 1.380558 1.604243 1.909425 2.396087 3.270600 5.272891 19.837409
2025-10-26 1.364960 1.590344 1.899998 2.399193 3.314098 5.506293 28.623150
2025-11-02 1.332807 1.552796 1.854994 2.342057 3.234356 5.370284 27.675087
2025-11-09 1.313834 1.533120 1.835615 2.326365 3.236332 5.478122 38.329126
2025-11-16 1.296598 1.515441 1.818608 2.313756 3.243410 5.604817 67.989313
2025-11-23 1.281216 1.499977 1.804381 2.305073 3.257733 5.760297 NaN